Towards Assessing the Impact of Population Ageing and Health Outlays in Australia During the Next 40 Years: The Development of a Dynamic Health Microsimulation Module Within APPSIM
The ageing of the population in Australia, due to decreased fertility and increased longevity, is placing increased pressure on government budgets. This fiscal pressure is heightened by the large cohort of baby boomers reaching older ages. A key concern is the high level of public expenditure on older Australians - particularly in the areas of social security, health and aged care - and how these costs are going to be financed. In Australia, the development of APPSIM, a dynamic microsimulation model, has been funded by 12 government agencies to develop a sophisticated policy decision making tool to look at the effects of ageing over the next 40 years. This presentation will discuss the development of the health module within APPSIM to date. The module has been developed to consider the effects of changing health status, as well as the effects of ageing, on health outlays by the Australian government over the next 40 years. Illustrative examples of the output from the APPSIM health module will be presented.